CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS
Oil pulls once more from a new 2019-high ($57.88) even as U.S. Crude Inventories mark the greatest decrease since July, yet the development from the 2018-low ($42.36) may begin to disentangle as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slumps in front of overbought region.
Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil: Neutral
Improvements leaving the world’s biggest economy may keep on influencing crude costs as the U.S. what’s more, China, the two biggest customers of oil, have all the earmarks of being on track to achieve an economic agreement, and the present condition may keep oil costs above water as crisp updates from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show a pickup popular.
U.S. crude inventories out of the blue limited 8647K in the week finishing February 22, however a more profound take a gander at the report demonstrates week after week field yield expanding for the second continuous week, with creation hitting a crisp record of 12,100K b/d amid a similar period. Accordingly, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partners may keep on controling creation at the following gathering in April, however the blended talk leaving Russia demonstrates that the coalition may reach an end in the not so distant future as Energy Minister Alexander Novak contends that its too soon to pre-focus on the unprecedented endeavors.
Accordingly, it stays to be checked whether OPEC+ will keep on directing the vitality advertise past the half year understanding particularly as President Donald Trump cautions ‘oil costs getting excessively high,’ and the blended direction may keep on controling the close term revision in crude as cost undermine the upward pattern from before the end of last year, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) inverts course in front of overbought domain.
CL1 DAILY CHART
Keep in mind, the broader outlook for crude remains constructive following the break of the December-high ($54.55), with price and the RSI clinging to the bullish formations from late-2018.
However, the string of failed attempts to close above $57.40 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for a larger pullback as crude threatens trendline support, with a break/close below the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) region opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $51.40 (50% retracement) to $52.10 (50% expansion), which largely lines up with the February-low ($51.23).
At the same time, will keep a close eye on the RSI amid the lack of momentum to push into overbought territory, with the oscillator as risk of flashing a bearish signal if the indicator threatens the upward trend from earlier this year.
Been a FOREX analyst for the past decade, Founder of FOREX UNIT, a reference website for FX traders, he has a long experience as a currency analyst with a deep knowledge in FOREX, Stocks Indicies and Commoditires.